According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment, the changes in the climate over the past decades are unequivocal and will continue during the 21st century[1]. The average air temperature has increased by about 1°C during the 20th century[2]. For the Bordeaux region, the increase already noted is rather of the order of 1.5°C[3]. Most climate models agree to predict a minimum additional increase of between 0.3 and 0.7°C by 2050, whatever the scenarios[4]. This increase should reach between 1.7 and 4.8°C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenarios[5].
Consequences on emblematic Bordeaux grape varieties
As a result, the Merlot grape variety in Bordeaux should experience an advance in the flowering date and the harvest date of around 40 days by the end of the 21st century[6]. Due to this earlier ripening in mid-summer, the minimum temperature during this key period in the development of the quality of the grapes would be increased by 4 to 6°C [7], thus reinforcing the impact of global warming[8]. As such, adaptations will be necessary concerning oenological techniques (de-alcoholization by reverse osmosis, pH management, etc.) to take into account the earlier harvest dates, the higher potential alcohol content[9], and the higher potential sugar content of the harvested grapes[10], which can in turn influence the sensory characteristics of finished wines[11].
Anticipation of meteorological changes
Despite a much higher degree of uncertainty than for temperatures, precipitation would be affected by greater variability between regions and between seasons[12]. In addition, given the rise in temperatures, the evaporative demand should also increase[13], which would have the effect of increasing the water needs of living beings[14], especially crops, and therefore the risk of a scarcity in water resources[15].
Simulations carried out by Météo France concerning the number of days without rain (<1mm) predict for the Bordeaux region an increase of 8 to 15 additional days of rain by the end of the 21st century compared to the situation in the 1990s[16]. On top of that, the sea level could rise by 0.5 to 1 meter[17].
Experts are unanimous on the fact that between now and 2050, it is rather the interannual variability of the climate and the occurrence of extreme events (for instance, recent wildfires in the region due to excessive drought) that will be the most notable, whatever the spatial scale considered[18].
Possible effects of water stress on Bordeaux vineyards
Another anticipated issue is related to the increase in the world population, which will generate Water Stress worldwide[19] and induce local ecological, demographic, economic, social, and geostrategic issues for decades to come[20]. Regarding viticulture, recent studies concluded that there is a significant risk of erosion of viticultural potential in France (and in the Bordeaux region), with the availability of water being a determining factor after the rise in temperature during maturation[21]. Various simulations also predict a marked drop in the return of water to deep aquifers and rivers in the decades to come[22], which will have consequences for the availability of drinking water and the irrigation of crops[23].
Global warming and Bordeaux wines in 2050
In terms of consequences for the vineyards of the Bordeaux region, global warming is worrying. In 2050, various scientific studies make us fear the worst: one in two wineries would be potentially threatened[24]. The Gironde Chamber of Agriculture already offers winegrowers the opportunity to diversify crops (for example, with olive trees[25]) as well as sources of income (development of the wine tourism offer[26]). These diversification efforts aim to fight against the variability (qualitative and quantitative) expected from the harvest in the coming decades because of climate change[27].
1/ Resistant grape varieties newly authorized in Bordeaux
In response to this ongoing change, the Bordeaux and Bordeaux Supérieur appellations approved in June 2019 the use of seven new disease- and heat-resistant grape varieties[28] (Marselan, Touriga Nacional, Castets, Arinarnoa, Alvarinho, Petit Manseng, and Liliorila)[29].
At the same time, the INAO institute has authorized the introduction into the Bordeaux region of certain French and foreign grape varieties (old or ‘new’) within the limit of 10% of a bottle[30] (this measure is also called ‘VIFA’, “Variétés d’Intérêt à Fin d’Adaptation”, by the INAO[31]). This initiative aims to facilitate experimentation[32]. It also made it possible to launch a dynamic of learning and adaptation with a view to anticipating future climate change[33].
Numerous studies on rootstocks are also carried out by UMR EGFV[34] in order to study their impact on adaptation to drought and climate change[35].
2/ Other impacts of climate change
Given climate change, a greater occurrence of the two types of Mildew is anticipated due to the advancement of budburst dates[36]. As a response, the INRA has decided to continue the work of Bouquet (Montpellier) and Doazan (Bordeaux) thanks to the INRA-ResDur program[37] aimed at the selection and crossing of various grape varieties in order to create new varieties that are more resistant and adapted to the coming climatic changes, particularly in the Bordeaux region[38].
Regarding the impact on the quality of grapes, studies are currently being carried out in the ISVV’s vine physiology laboratory (UMR EGFV) to better understand the effect of these climatic changes on the physiology and composition of the berries[39]. There are also expected impacts on aromatic precursors[40]. Indeed, a strong impact of global warming is expected on the aromatic profile of Bordeaux wines[41], with more pronounced aromas and aromatic profiles probably closer to some New World wines[42] (for example, Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand[43]).
The impact of globalization
Moreover, one of the main changes expected for wines from the Bordeaux region is related to business reasons. Indeed, given globalization and the increased competition from wines of the New World, Bordeaux wines will be forced to adapt quickly to demand on the world market[44] (particularly in countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China), with a risk of seeing competitors emerge and strengthen[45].
Therefore, local producers will need to pay regular attention to the evolution of their clients’ needs to be able to adapt their wines to market trends[46].
The Bordeaux wine distribution system is secured through the “Place de Bordeaux” market place: 90% of their wine production is sold to ‘négociants’ (wine merchants). However, a financially performing wine estate requires a certain critical size[47] (with induced fixed costs), so this business model may become tricky when production costs rise or when harvest variability increases[48]. It should also be noted that this problem is even more worrying with regard to small family-owned wineries[49].
To survive the global competition[50], the fall in wine consumption worldwide[51], and the risk of harvest variability[52], Bordeaux producers will need to develop a profitable ‘ladder branding’ strategy[53]. Their ‘First Wines’ will represent their best quality and top-priced products, while their second and third wines will provide additional sources of revenue and opportunities to develop new products to stick to customer demand and innovate[54].
Increase in demand for organic and biodynamic wines
Another evolution I see in Bordeaux wines is the rise of demands for niche market wines such as Biodynamic and Natural wines. One advantage of these types of niche markets is that they tend to offer a higher willingness to pay from consumers[55]. Given the ‘2030 Target’, this rise will represent a great opportunity for Bordeaux wines because they will be ahead of other wine regions in France and around the world.
Foreign Investments in Bordeaux
The last change I anticipate regarding Bordeaux wines is the increase in Bordeaux wineries acquisitions by foreign investors (Foreign Direct Investments[56]). As mentioned, climate change will generate variability in cash flows and create struggles for financially weak wineries, which will create opportunities for foreign acquisitions and concentration in the industry to create stronger companies[57].
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References
[1] « Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC ».
[2] « Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC ».
[3] Drappier et al., « Relationship between wine composition and temperature: Impact on Bordeaux wine typicity in the context of global warming ».
[4] « Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC ».
[5] « Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC ».
[6] Ollat et al., « La viticulture en Gironde et le changement climatique: perspectives et travaux de recherches ».
[7] Ollat, Touzard, et van Leeuwen, « Climate change impacts and adaptations: new challenges for the wine industry ».
[8] Pieri, Lebon, et Brisson, « Climate change impact on French vineyards as predicted by models ».
[9] Gutiérrez-Gamboa, Zheng, et de Toda, « Current viticultural techniques to mitigate the effects of global warming on grape and wine quality: A comprehensive review ».
[10] Gutiérrez-Gamboa, Zheng, et de Toda.
[11] Gil et al., « Influence of Partial Dealcoholization by Reverse Osmosis on Red Wine Composition and Sensory Characteristics ».
[12] « Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC ».
[13] Gifford, Roderick, et Farquhar, « Evaporative demand: does it increase with global warming? »
[14] Vicente‐Serrano et al., « Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change ».
[15] Şen, « Global warming threat on water resources and environment: a review ».
[16] Blanchard et al., « Typology of droughts over France and tools for estimation of water resources used at Météo-France ».
[17] Le Treut, Les impacts du changement climatique en Aquitaine.
[18] « Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC ».
[19] Arnell, « Climate change and global water resources ».
[20] Vorosmarty et al., « Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth ».
[21] Ollat, Touzard, et van Leeuwen, « Climate change impacts and adaptations: new challenges for the wine industry ».
[22] Dokulil, « Impact of climate warming on European inland waters ».
[23] Haddeland et al., « Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change ».
[24] Ugaglia, Giraud-Heraud, et Surry, « Adaptation strategies of Bordeaux’s winemakers to face climate change ».
[25] « Bordelais ».
[26] « Pourrons-nous continuer à boire du vin de Bordeaux avec un réchauffement climatique à +4 °C ? »
[27] Ashenfelter et Storchmann, « The economics of wine, weather, and climate change ».
[28] « Bordeaux anticipe le réchauffement climatique avec de nouveaux cépages ».
[29] Bayar, « The Bordeaux Region ».
[30] Montaigne, Coelho, et Zadmehran, « A comprehensive economic examination and prospects on innovation in new grapevine varieties dealing with global warming and fungal diseases ».
[31] Actimage, « Les variétés d’intérêt à fin d’adaptation, une procédure d’anticipation pour les ODG viticoles qui le souhaitent ».
[32] Doncieux et al., « Agrobiodiversity Dynamics in a French Wine-Growing Region ».
[33] « Viticulture et réchauffement climatique : le pari de la flexibilité du droit – Archive ouverte HAL ».
[34] Dai et al., « Ecophysiological, Genetic, and Molecular Causes of Variation in Grape Berry Weight and Composition ».
[35] Marguerit, « Déterminisme génétique des réponses au déficit hydrique de la transpiration et de la croissance, induites par le porte-greffe, chez la vigne ».
[36] Caubel et al., « Generic Response Functions to Simulate Climate-Based Processes in Models for the Development of Airborne Fungal Crop Pathogens ».
[37] Schneider et al., « INRA-ResDur ».
[38] Wiedemann-Merdinoglu et al., « INRA-RESDUR: A French grapevine breeding program for durable resistance to downy and powdery mildew ».
[39] Rienth et al., « Modifications of Grapevine Berry Composition Induced by Main Viral and Fungal Pathogens in a Climate Change Scenario ».
[40] Pons et al., « What Is the Expected Impact of Climate Change on Wine Aroma Compounds and Their Precursors in Grape? »
[41] Pieri, Lebon, et Brisson, « Climate change impact on French vineyards as predicted by models ».
[42] Van Leeuwen et al., « An update on the impact of climate change in viticulture and potential adaptations ».
[43] Allamy, Darriet, et Pons, « How climate change can modify the flavor of red Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon wines from Bordeaux ».
[44] Galbreath et al., « The impact of climate change on firm adaptation ».
[45] Galbreath, « To cooperate or compete? »
[46] Jones et Webb, « Climate Change, Viticulture, and Wine ».
[47] Dressler et Paunovic, « Not All Wine Businesses Are the Same ».
[48] Ferrer et Villanueva, « A managerial survey to discuss wine business models ».
[49] Browne, Balan, et Lindsay, « The business models of small family wineries ».
[50] Galati et al., « Changes in the international wine market competitiveness ».
[51] Ohana-Levi et Netzer, « Long-Term Trends of Global Wine Market ».
[52] Jones et Davis, « Climate Influences on Grapevine Phenology, Grape Composition, and Wine Production and Quality for Bordeaux, France ».
[53] Resnick, « Wine and Branding ».
[54] Resnick.
[55] Galati et al., « “Natural Wine” Consumers and Interest in Label Information ».
[56] Ponty, Rigaudeau, et Costargent, « The Protection of Foreign Investment in the Wine Sector ».
[57] Curran et Thorpe, « Chinese Foreign Investment in Wine Production ».
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